SparkToro 联合 Similarweb 报告：5年间开放网络流量下降12%，人均访问量下跌近30%

Today, with the help of Similarweb‘s excellent research team, we’re publishing some new data analyzing where and how much traffic to the open web has evolved from 2021 to 2026. This quest started on a theory I had that the top few websites, dominated by the Big Tech players, was hoarding more of the web’s traffic, while fewer visits were making their way to smaller (and mid-size) sites on the Internet.

To verify this theory, I asked the Similarweb folks to look at their global panel of mobile and web traffic, and provide me with a few critical numbers:

• The total amount of traffic flowing to the top million sites each month from 2021 to 2026
• A breakdown of how much traffic went to the top 10 most visited domains, and then the 11-100, 101-5,000, 5,001-100,000, and 100,001-1,000,000 most-visited domains.
• Each of these buckets of trafficked-sites also included over-time metrics, so we could see the trend

Here are the visual results of that initial analysis:

First, the good news: the distribution of traffic to the open web has not changed much in the last 5 years. Despite my fears that Big Tech’s monopolies were stifling traffic to the other players in the top million, it appears that stagnation is a more accurate description of the trend. There’s a slight uptick of ~3% of traffic going to the top 100 sites vs. the following 9,999,900 domains, but it’s far less severe than I feared.

A few caveats:

• We’re only able to observe mobile and desktop web traffic via the browser. In the app world, consolidation and domination by Big Tech is likely far more prevalent.
• This looks at worldwide traffic, so plausible that we’ve seen a decline in traffic to US/UK/EU websites (as many have reported) while other regions have grown with increasing Internet access (e.g. Asia and Africa have had significant growth in online users and web usage the last half decade).
• 2021 was hardly the start of the Zero-Click era. As our previous research has documented, significant declines in Google’s zero-click searches and social media platforms biasing against links happened from 2012-2020.

Still, my fears were happily allayed by this data.

Now, let’s move on to a less-happy conclusion from this analysis.

Over the last 5 years, Internet adoption has grown significantly. DataReportal’s quarterly reports show nearly 25% growth in the number of people with regular Internet access across the planet. That represents growth in people who previously didn’t have devices with connectivity getting them/it, as well as new humans coming of age and getting on the web (i.e. population growth).

Here’s the sad news — Similarweb’s global panel models traffic based on all those users. I’ve illustrated that in the graph below, where the sum of traffic to the top million sites (left axis) is shown alongside the estimated web users (right axis).

Astute readers will have already caught the problem — there’s 25% more people using the web, and a decline in total traffic. Which means… visits/visitor have dropped steadily in the last 5 years, and total visits to the web’s top million sites have fallen ~10% too.

Could this be because more people are exclusively accessing the Internet via apps? Is it because use of search engines, AI tools, and social networks are keeping people from needing (or wanting) to visit more websites? Are we simply seeing the waning effects of the Covid pandemic (2021-2022 had especially high Internet usage during the lockdowns)? Or is another conflating factor at play?

We can’t say for certain. But we know that total web traffic and visits-per-Internet-connected human are down from their peak in 2021/22.

In Summary

Total traffic peaked in Q1 2022 at 2.243 trillion visits.

• At the low point (Q1 2026 – 1.914T), traffic was down 14.7% from the 2022 high.
• As of last quarter (Q3 2026 – 1.970T), traffic is down 12.2% from the 2022 high.

Visits-per-user fell more than twice as much as total traffic (because of the growth in total web users). There are ~24% more humans on the web today: 4.95B in 2022 vs. 6.15B in 2026. That’s a drop in visits/user of 29.2% 😬

Going forward, I hope to further validate this research with additional sources, and watch the numbers every year or two to see how this trend evolves. My hope is to see a web that stays healthy, vibrant, and diverse. That first distribution analysis made me feel good about part of that desire, even though we know that certain regions and sectors are struggling against Big Tech’s Zero-Click incentives. The second one make me nervous.

Licensing, Usage, and Closing Notes

Feel free to quote, cite, and share images from this report anywhere you’d like so long as you provide linked credit back to this post and to Similarweb.com as the data provider.

Thank you to Similarweb’s Sam Sheridan and Adelle Kehoe for their respective help constructing this report and providing the data/validating my analysis.

No AI was used in the authoring of this post (all mistakes and em-dashes are mine alone). I consider it disrespectful and unethical to use AI for such purposes and thus, nothing I write employs this technology.

Rand Fishkin

Rand Fishkin is the co-founder and CEO of SparkToro. For a quarter century he's helped people do better marketing (and held big tech's feet to the fire) through his blog posts, videos, books, and research.

Rand also co-founded Alertmouse, Snackbar Studio, Moz, and a hopelessly romantic marriage to bestselling author, Geraldine DeRuiter.